Bond yield curves change as markets digest new information. Does an inverted yield curve tell investors anything meaningful about the timing and direction of equity market moves?

What is a yield curve, and why are stock investors interested in its shape? A yield curve gives a snapshot of how yields vary across bonds of similar credit quality, but different maturities, at a specific point in time. For example, the US Treasury yield curve indicates the yields of US Treasury bonds across a range of maturities. Bond yields change as markets digest news and events around the world, which also causes yield curves to move and change shape over time.

After experiencing significant losses in the 4^th Quarter of 2018, investors that maintained discipline and patience benefited from a significant recovery during the first quarter of 2019. Equity markets delivered positive returns; the S&P 500, Russell 2000 and MSCI All Country (ex USA) World Index delivered returns of +13.65%, +14.58% and + 10.31%, respectively.

Investment fads are nothing new. When selecting strategies for their portfolios, investors are often tempted to seek out the latest and greatest investment opportunities.

Over the years, these approaches have sought to capitalize on developments such as the perceived relative strength of particular geographic regions, technological changes in the economy, or the popularity of different natural resources. But long-term investors should be aware that letting short-term trends influence their investment approach may be counterproductive. As Nobel laureate Eugene Fama said, “There’s one robust new idea in finance that has investment implications maybe every 10 or 15 years, but there’s a marketing idea every week.”

As 2019 approaches, and with US stocks outperforming non-US stocks in recent years, some investors have again turned their attention towards the role that global diversification plays in their portfolios. For the five-year period ending October 31, 2018, the S&P 500 Index had an annualized return of 11.34% while the MSCI World ex USA Index returned 1.86%, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index returned 0.78%. As US stocks have outperformed international and emerging markets stocks over the last several years, some investors might be reconsidering the benefits of investing outside the US.

After logging strong returns in 2017, global equity markets delivered negative returns in US dollar terms in 2018. Common news stories in 2018 included reports on global economic growth, corporate earnings, record low unemployment in the US, the implementation of Brexit, US trade wars with China and other countries, and a flattening US Treasury yield curve. Global equity markets delivered positive returns through September, followed by a decline in the fourth quarter, resulting in a −4.4% return for the S&P 500 and −9.4% for the MSCI All Country World Index for the year. You can read more about performance in our Q4 market review.

The total U.S. market continued to move higher, while the international markets were negative for the quarter, minimizing overall portfolio returns. For more specific details on the overall market performance view our quarterly report here.